* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/14/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 60 64 71 78 73 88 76 60 50 43 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 60 64 71 78 63 80 69 53 42 36 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 59 62 64 56 46 43 42 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 16 23 21 25 38 58 29 45 33 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 1 -2 -1 1 6 14 3 13 7 2 10 SHEAR DIR 260 255 205 216 233 205 222 211 197 237 233 219 270 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.6 27.7 27.2 27.5 23.9 14.3 10.1 9.5 10.1 9.9 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 148 136 130 136 106 76 72 66 60 66 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 137 126 121 130 101 74 70 64 58 65 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -49.7 -49.7 -49.2 -47.5 -46.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 66 64 57 51 47 49 52 59 52 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 18 17 18 20 25 24 43 35 23 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 62 51 63 53 28 28 90 203 252 216 297 233 36 200 MB DIV 112 115 124 109 99 130 94 129 150 108 91 14 -32 700-850 TADV 13 23 16 11 13 18 17 -74 -89 -35 -61 -31 73 LAND (KM) 477 619 769 977 886 813 433 -34 687 1167 1264 1150 849 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 25.2 26.6 28.5 30.3 34.8 40.8 47.7 55.0 58.9 59.4 57.9 53.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.9 69.3 69.0 68.6 67.0 61.7 55.0 45.8 40.1 38.7 39.6 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 19 21 29 40 44 35 15 3 16 24 HEAT CONTENT 69 48 28 19 9 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 6. 23. 16. 5. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 28. 23. 38. 26. 10. 0. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/14/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)