* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/14/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 64 65 62 55 50 52 50 44 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 64 65 62 55 50 52 50 44 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 59 58 51 46 43 44 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 23 20 37 53 59 52 35 16 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 3 1 -1 2 0 8 5 7 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 236 194 215 219 216 200 204 204 222 209 188 243 323 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.4 27.3 27.7 19.1 11.0 8.7 9.8 8.4 8.5 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 147 134 133 141 85 74 71 62 66 71 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 138 127 126 137 81 72 70 60 64 70 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -51.9 -49.2 -52.9 -53.4 -47.3 -49.7 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 63 62 60 55 52 50 58 65 62 47 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 14 18 18 17 13 11 19 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 50 58 55 32 8 42 103 279 180 205 292 123 -140 200 MB DIV 96 119 86 73 75 112 99 137 127 34 59 -26 -33 700-850 TADV 21 14 19 23 14 -7 -114 -182 -9 -9 -26 35 44 LAND (KM) 535 697 859 878 792 675 305 254 1074 1264 1200 741 25 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 26.0 27.5 29.8 32.0 37.2 43.6 50.8 58.6 62.1 61.1 57.4 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 69.8 70.2 69.3 68.4 65.1 58.0 50.8 41.6 37.5 40.6 46.8 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 19 24 26 36 43 46 34 6 16 35 47 HEAT CONTENT 59 36 28 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -6. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -1. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 15. 12. 5. 0. 2. 0. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/14/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)