* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/14/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 61 68 67 61 50 54 44 37 35 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 61 68 67 61 50 54 44 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 56 61 59 51 44 39 37 38 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 32 53 55 74 45 56 57 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 4 2 4 14 10 0 -1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 219 230 236 225 202 214 218 221 222 230 234 244 N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.2 27.3 27.1 27.6 26.5 16.7 12.5 12.7 11.8 12.8 13.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 142 131 130 137 127 79 72 71 69 70 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 133 123 121 130 124 76 70 69 67 67 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -51.4 -49.3 -48.8 -48.9 -49.2 -49.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 65 63 60 55 49 43 39 36 46 43 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 15 17 19 16 15 14 23 20 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 32 23 11 7 56 110 223 220 195 160 83 N/A 200 MB DIV 129 106 92 85 118 75 76 92 74 104 75 51 N/A 700-850 TADV 18 15 20 18 11 -44 -84 -145 -28 -71 -81 -70 N/A LAND (KM) 657 859 962 874 847 567 180 430 1003 1484 1041 550 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 27.4 29.2 31.4 33.5 39.0 45.1 49.3 52.0 54.0 54.8 55.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.4 69.1 68.7 67.9 67.0 62.3 54.1 47.2 39.9 32.7 26.0 18.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 18 21 23 28 38 37 29 25 22 21 22 N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 22 12 8 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. 5. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 17. 11. 0. 4. -6. -13. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/14/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)