* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/15/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 69 74 71 65 62 60 51 43 41 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 65 69 74 71 65 62 60 51 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 63 65 68 59 52 46 43 42 44 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 15 20 40 46 50 45 35 29 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 4 2 2 11 1 0 -2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 214 224 211 208 207 215 223 224 204 221 226 215 N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.3 27.2 27.7 27.5 23.0 13.1 13.1 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 132 132 139 137 101 74 71 67 65 65 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 123 124 133 133 96 72 69 65 63 63 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -51.2 -49.7 -48.2 -46.8 -46.2 -47.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 59 56 53 46 42 46 45 51 48 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 14 12 19 22 21 20 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 22 12 -3 21 59 113 201 252 238 217 153 N/A 200 MB DIV 116 103 83 129 130 46 95 122 103 89 25 25 N/A 700-850 TADV 13 20 6 1 0 -73 -149 -98 -135 -30 -8 -14 N/A LAND (KM) 839 958 827 889 792 462 284 851 1254 1474 1321 1034 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 29.3 31.4 33.9 36.3 41.8 47.8 51.8 54.3 55.6 55.6 55.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.9 68.7 68.4 66.4 64.4 57.9 49.0 42.1 36.9 32.8 30.4 25.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 25 30 33 40 37 25 16 10 10 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 11 5 15 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 16. 10. 7. 5. -4. -12. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/15/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/15/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/15/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)