* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/15/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 69 71 66 76 62 54 47 39 36 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 66 69 71 66 76 62 54 47 39 36 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 63 66 63 53 47 43 42 42 44 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 19 28 53 44 47 38 30 22 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 6 3 7 8 1 5 1 0 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 227 223 205 197 209 205 222 226 234 224 204 235 N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.6 27.5 26.6 17.6 13.8 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.5 12.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 137 138 128 82 75 68 65 61 64 66 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 131 134 124 78 73 67 62 59 62 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -51.6 -50.3 -49.1 -48.0 -46.9 -48.2 -51.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 56 53 49 41 42 47 47 46 44 42 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 16 17 17 13 32 23 21 22 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 3 2 16 41 71 135 183 256 255 186 57 N/A 200 MB DIV 103 82 125 124 88 60 97 101 117 58 -7 -14 N/A 700-850 TADV 22 10 6 -4 -33 -61 -151 -106 -67 4 46 31 N/A LAND (KM) 985 887 850 817 621 239 641 1195 1460 1427 1455 1348 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 31.2 33.4 36.1 38.7 44.6 50.7 54.6 56.5 56.9 55.6 53.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.6 67.8 67.0 64.4 61.7 54.4 44.7 37.8 33.8 32.0 32.5 30.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 28 34 37 43 36 22 10 3 8 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 8 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 16 CX,CY: 3/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. 12. 5. 3. 3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 11. 21. 7. -1. -8. -16. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/15/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/15/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/15/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)