* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/15/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 68 72 73 69 62 66 54 46 40 29 25 V (KT) LAND 60 63 68 72 73 69 62 66 54 46 40 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 68 68 58 48 42 38 38 41 45 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 28 25 29 37 56 49 27 15 5 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 9 11 14 0 0 0 -1 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 213 197 193 218 213 214 226 240 223 199 261 313 N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.6 27.5 26.5 23.1 13.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.1 9.7 12.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 137 137 128 101 75 72 67 62 65 67 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 128 133 125 96 73 70 65 59 64 65 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -50.6 -49.3 -48.5 -46.8 -46.3 -51.5 -56.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 53 52 48 37 42 42 53 56 52 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 21 21 18 17 29 23 21 20 18 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 0 44 56 71 76 106 204 256 194 61 -7 N/A 200 MB DIV 110 139 149 103 55 37 112 101 92 25 -32 -39 N/A 700-850 TADV 14 10 3 1 18 -92 -6 -56 -8 -5 36 18 N/A LAND (KM) 887 874 762 608 476 269 1052 1450 1527 1358 971 781 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 33.6 36.0 38.9 41.8 47.8 53.5 57.1 58.5 58.0 55.4 52.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.8 66.7 65.5 61.6 57.6 49.2 39.9 34.1 33.3 36.0 41.4 43.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 34 42 42 42 32 15 4 13 18 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 15 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 25 CX,CY: 6/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -6. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. 10. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 13. 9. 2. 6. -6. -14. -20. -31. -35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/15/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/15/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/15/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)