* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/16/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 76 76 72 62 52 43 35 28 21 18 V (KT) LAND 70 74 76 67 74 70 60 50 41 31 28 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 72 66 60 51 43 38 35 30 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 28 28 34 37 54 36 23 12 23 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 6 8 7 20 6 20 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 212 224 203 197 228 216 216 267 338 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 25.2 20.1 14.3 11.2 9.5 10.0 8.0 7.6 11.8 17.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 116 88 76 74 71 63 65 70 74 81 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 111 84 74 72 69 61 64 69 72 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -51.1 -49.4 -50.6 -48.4 -46.1 -49.7 -58.9 -57.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 57 60 55 53 54 60 60 55 41 27 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 23 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 75 108 162 237 206 248 319 71 -146 -134 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 146 107 105 100 102 112 61 4 -29 -21 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -22 -22 -155 -219 -27 13 0 87 39 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 543 387 -22 312 1122 1293 1163 743 -89 38 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 40.1 43.3 47.1 50.8 58.3 61.8 61.5 58.6 52.1 45.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 60.9 56.8 53.3 49.8 40.4 37.3 40.8 48.8 58.1 60.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 45 45 44 46 32 8 16 33 39 37 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 35 CX,CY: 18/ 30 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -3. -6. -13. -20. -27. -30. -33. -34. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -4. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 13. 12. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -8. -18. -27. -35. -42. -49. -52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/16/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/16/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/16/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 5( 13) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)