* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/16/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 63 66 61 47 34 25 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 55 58 61 56 43 30 31 30 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 52 49 46 40 36 33 33 34 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 49 53 48 34 20 18 33 6 30 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 12 -5 -7 5 5 10 7 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 201 196 167 200 231 226 315 349 276 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.7 15.2 12.0 10.4 7.0 4.8 5.6 6.9 12.5 18.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 78 74 73 70 61 66 71 75 84 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 75 73 72 69 N/A N/A 70 73 80 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -50.1 -48.1 -48.1 -48.7 -45.4 -46.6 -55.3 -58.4 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 46 46 56 56 63 55 60 26 24 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 23 37 41 34 23 21 20 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 184 318 274 301 340 187 -66 -205 10 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 88 75 125 123 54 6 -51 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -165 -226 -120 -62 -38 -28 37 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 358 45 96 466 872 1003 825 229 49 190 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.8 46.4 50.0 54.2 58.3 61.6 60.7 57.0 49.5 41.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 55.5 52.7 49.0 45.3 44.5 49.0 57.8 66.2 68.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 40 41 44 47 31 8 20 37 42 40 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 42 CX,CY: 27/ 32 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -8. -3. 0. -1. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 6. 10. 8. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 12. 10. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -2. 1. -4. -18. -31. -40. -43. -50. -56. -57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/16/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/16/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/16/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)