* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 09/17/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 45 46 45 42 38 38 38 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 45 46 45 42 38 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 25 27 33 38 40 38 35 30 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 7 3 13 25 26 34 33 35 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 -3 1 4 6 7 14 13 12 9 10 SHEAR DIR 96 84 95 108 164 258 264 246 236 240 244 268 240 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 132 133 134 138 136 134 129 130 131 134 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 128 130 131 133 138 138 136 130 131 131 133 140 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 75 70 67 69 69 69 71 70 67 64 61 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 40 42 48 58 63 52 53 49 55 48 33 200 MB DIV 23 12 17 16 30 47 91 114 76 30 47 19 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 -5 1 15 25 22 6 19 LAND (KM) 486 567 651 755 856 1083 1360 1682 1946 1771 1575 1363 1183 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.2 13.1 14.2 15.1 15.7 15.8 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.7 24.7 27.0 29.8 33.0 36.2 39.6 43.1 46.6 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 9 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 17 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 11 14 12 15 11 8 16 26 25 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 353 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -2. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 25. 26. 25. 22. 18. 18. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 09/17/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 09/17/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED