* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 09/17/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 39 42 42 40 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 39 42 42 40 36 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 33 35 34 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 8 3 14 20 18 22 21 28 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -2 3 3 0 8 13 14 12 9 8 SHEAR DIR 97 94 105 118 195 271 268 241 242 235 243 245 252 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 134 136 138 136 137 137 140 142 145 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 132 134 137 140 139 141 141 144 147 152 168 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -53.4 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 73 75 73 75 72 69 64 63 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 39 42 47 50 48 46 45 41 44 29 43 200 MB DIV 14 22 8 20 25 66 91 99 54 27 5 7 9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -3 -5 0 5 14 14 18 13 LAND (KM) 514 614 717 837 956 1217 1504 1794 1782 1546 1300 1045 824 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 11.2 12.1 12.9 13.5 13.7 13.5 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.5 28.0 30.9 34.0 37.2 40.9 44.6 48.4 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 16 16 12 15 14 14 26 21 50 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 22. 20. 16. 16. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 09/17/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 09/17/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED