* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 09/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 36 39 39 37 34 33 31 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 36 39 39 37 34 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 33 33 31 28 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 5 6 9 15 15 21 32 35 34 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 4 2 11 4 11 9 7 8 12 7 SHEAR DIR 82 81 112 189 281 296 284 257 257 243 259 243 252 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 133 135 135 138 136 139 138 138 138 138 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 134 136 138 143 141 145 143 142 141 139 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 73 74 77 80 76 76 70 71 66 65 63 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 25 24 29 42 41 46 38 38 40 37 22 200 MB DIV 31 21 32 37 31 36 62 79 38 30 12 36 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 1 -5 -7 -1 6 24 8 12 9 LAND (KM) 407 504 607 738 870 1180 1483 1747 1759 1569 1385 1224 1087 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.9 11.6 12.7 13.8 14.6 15.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.1 22.1 23.4 24.6 27.5 30.6 33.9 37.3 40.9 44.5 48.0 51.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 18 18 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 13 18 12 17 15 16 26 21 32 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 17. 14. 13. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 09/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 09/17/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED