* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 09/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 29 31 31 28 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 29 31 31 28 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 4 6 11 22 31 39 48 40 45 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 7 9 9 10 9 7 6 8 3 3 SHEAR DIR 80 95 164 292 288 285 257 251 245 243 243 247 255 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 133 135 137 139 135 131 128 129 131 132 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 134 137 140 144 140 133 129 128 128 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 75 75 74 70 65 64 67 62 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 25 34 35 47 46 38 35 31 10 4 -9 200 MB DIV 12 25 23 26 28 37 65 55 39 33 42 17 26 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 -1 1 10 31 22 33 14 -7 LAND (KM) 450 548 653 792 934 1224 1541 1896 1864 1720 1596 1486 1288 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.5 12.6 14.0 15.4 16.6 17.5 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.6 22.6 24.0 25.3 28.3 31.6 35.1 38.7 42.1 45.3 48.4 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 14 16 18 18 18 17 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 12 14 18 13 11 8 9 25 27 33 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -11. -16. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 1. -3. -6. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 09/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 09/17/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED