* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 09/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 22 32 38 45 47 51 47 43 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 2 6 8 4 5 2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 147 202 255 263 262 254 246 248 241 257 252 257 254 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 138 137 134 129 124 126 129 131 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 136 138 138 135 129 122 122 123 124 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 7 8 8 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 72 74 68 68 65 64 63 61 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 46 51 56 48 39 21 29 4 0 -12 -3 200 MB DIV 25 33 45 43 49 76 66 62 64 28 7 12 -12 700-850 TADV 5 6 6 4 8 13 23 44 32 12 3 -22 -13 LAND (KM) 732 841 943 1059 1180 1481 1793 2020 1895 1782 1687 1575 1379 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.6 14.9 16.2 17.3 18.1 18.6 18.7 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 23.5 24.6 25.7 27.0 28.2 31.2 34.2 37.5 40.4 43.1 45.6 48.2 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 16 17 16 14 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 15 13 14 10 7 7 13 24 24 31 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -17. -27. -33. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -5. -12. -17. -20. -20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 09/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 09/18/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED