* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 59 65 67 68 68 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 48 59 65 67 68 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 29 34 41 48 54 56 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 9 7 9 7 3 1 2 4 5 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -1 0 2 5 6 6 6 3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 223 227 211 214 296 252 346 199 256 216 253 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 141 142 142 143 145 148 150 151 152 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 137 136 137 136 138 142 146 150 151 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 64 68 68 67 65 61 59 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 11 12 14 14 14 14 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 28 31 34 37 43 45 50 44 39 40 33 200 MB DIV 61 79 81 94 92 63 63 35 30 -6 3 14 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1570 1565 1563 1559 1558 1553 1483 1346 1198 1060 942 839 798 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.8 36.4 37.0 37.5 38.5 39.6 41.1 42.9 44.8 46.8 48.8 50.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 24 24 25 28 32 40 56 53 57 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 39. 45. 47. 48. 48. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/18/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)