* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 09/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 27 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 27 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 13 16 30 39 42 45 35 38 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 4 7 10 8 9 15 13 8 1 SHEAR DIR 121 269 283 273 261 253 248 248 247 258 253 261 262 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 138 138 136 131 127 127 130 131 135 144 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 136 140 141 138 133 128 126 128 130 134 146 160 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 75 72 72 72 73 66 65 62 61 59 53 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 48 55 53 44 22 24 17 8 15 5 6 200 MB DIV 43 50 55 52 55 87 77 48 33 11 8 6 17 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 -1 0 9 17 32 9 8 10 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 774 896 1021 1162 1307 1628 1986 1858 1684 1509 1322 1021 678 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.2 16.9 17.2 16.9 16.4 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 23.9 25.2 26.5 28.0 29.4 32.6 36.0 39.6 43.0 46.4 49.9 53.5 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 14 14 15 17 18 17 16 17 17 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 14 13 15 10 7 11 27 30 45 65 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -7. -15. -22. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -3. -8. -12. -13. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 09/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 09/18/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED