* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 56 64 66 69 67 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 45 56 64 66 69 67 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 47 56 64 68 68 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 8 5 1 1 2 5 5 15 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 1 3 5 3 6 4 4 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 219 227 206 214 248 235 48 128 239 201 245 260 272 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 141 141 142 146 148 150 151 152 156 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 135 136 136 136 137 144 147 151 152 155 158 166 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 64 66 68 70 67 64 60 58 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 13 13 13 13 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 35 37 38 38 49 47 51 38 42 35 31 200 MB DIV 76 81 93 89 86 70 61 36 8 -3 0 19 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -6 LAND (KM) 1602 1597 1595 1590 1589 1579 1455 1303 1150 1007 863 768 726 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.8 36.4 37.0 37.6 38.7 40.1 41.9 43.8 46.1 48.4 50.9 53.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 23 23 22 30 34 43 57 56 69 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 31. 39. 41. 44. 42. 40. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/18/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)