* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 09/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 22 26 30 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 22 26 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 36 35 33 30 25 26 24 27 23 29 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 6 7 6 1 2 0 2 4 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 271 272 282 293 289 286 283 287 286 294 288 294 277 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 127 127 128 130 133 134 136 140 143 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 116 116 117 118 121 124 126 128 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 44 43 44 42 42 44 46 49 52 51 51 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 40 39 36 36 37 17 14 4 2 -5 -19 200 MB DIV -4 20 0 -29 -31 -19 -8 -10 -16 -2 -16 10 3 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 5 5 0 3 3 -3 -1 3 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1699 1677 1657 1627 1599 1546 1487 1403 1251 1128 901 662 446 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.9 44.4 45.0 45.6 46.9 48.6 50.5 52.6 54.8 57.2 59.6 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 27 27 30 34 43 44 40 51 55 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 09/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 09/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 09/18/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)