* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 46 46 43 38 32 28 27 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 46 46 43 38 32 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 35 34 31 28 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 11 8 9 12 19 26 27 29 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -1 5 9 9 9 8 7 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 234 217 226 236 258 244 253 241 252 240 259 256 275 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 138 136 136 137 136 136 135 136 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 133 132 131 132 134 133 134 132 132 136 138 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 65 67 69 69 70 65 65 62 61 57 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 13 12 13 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 45 43 43 48 38 39 22 1 -19 -18 -20 200 MB DIV 80 88 84 87 66 63 37 33 3 -5 -9 -4 -11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 3 0 3 -4 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 1633 1646 1662 1675 1691 1666 1547 1449 1339 1263 1199 1082 915 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.8 36.3 36.9 37.4 38.8 40.7 42.9 45.3 47.8 50.4 52.8 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 9 10 12 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 19 19 19 21 26 24 22 32 50 64 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 21. 18. 13. 7. 3. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/18/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)