* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 09/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 27 31 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 27 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 32 30 27 24 23 24 26 26 29 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 5 2 0 2 -1 3 1 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 274 282 288 286 285 276 286 278 293 287 295 277 280 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 127 127 130 131 134 137 142 146 150 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 116 117 117 121 123 126 130 136 140 144 149 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 43 44 42 42 44 44 48 50 51 51 51 52 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 41 38 40 43 39 21 15 11 14 5 -5 200 MB DIV 21 1 -26 -29 -28 -17 -9 -23 -14 -13 -3 7 4 700-850 TADV 6 8 5 5 3 0 3 0 -4 3 0 3 -6 LAND (KM) 1660 1636 1613 1577 1544 1469 1409 1273 1115 980 696 426 154 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.5 45.0 45.7 46.3 47.9 49.8 51.8 54.0 56.4 59.1 61.7 64.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 7 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 27 27 29 31 41 51 52 53 58 63 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 11. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 09/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 09/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 09/18/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)