* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 38 35 32 29 27 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 38 35 32 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 29 27 25 22 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 7 9 13 15 24 21 31 25 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 2 4 7 8 8 2 0 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 216 248 253 261 236 250 242 249 244 248 249 254 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 136 135 136 136 135 135 136 138 142 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 132 131 130 132 132 131 132 133 134 138 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 66 69 69 71 71 68 66 64 61 55 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 40 38 38 42 38 31 12 6 -8 -11 -14 200 MB DIV 79 79 69 50 49 47 20 14 8 -8 -12 -5 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 3 0 -1 -4 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 1645 1661 1680 1701 1725 1632 1524 1422 1315 1236 1184 1004 855 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.4 36.9 37.5 38.0 39.5 41.5 43.7 46.1 48.6 51.2 53.7 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 9 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 18 19 21 27 22 23 35 57 66 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 10. 7. 4. 2. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)