* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 09/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 31 32 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 31 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 25 24 21 23 19 24 22 30 30 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 1 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 274 278 280 288 283 275 277 269 286 284 288 275 279 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 129 130 132 135 138 143 148 151 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 118 120 122 125 128 132 138 144 147 152 152 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 42 41 46 44 48 52 54 55 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 46 49 47 50 37 32 22 15 9 0 7 200 MB DIV 3 -16 -30 -24 -20 -16 -12 -14 -3 -10 15 -9 10 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 2 0 1 3 0 1 0 -3 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1557 1518 1480 1438 1398 1331 1234 1068 918 742 455 158 22 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 45.6 46.2 47.0 47.7 49.4 51.5 53.6 56.0 58.7 61.4 64.2 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 29 33 35 40 54 63 60 66 72 74 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 09/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 09/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 09/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)