* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 47 50 50 52 54 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 42 47 50 50 52 54 54 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 38 40 41 43 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 8 4 8 3 7 11 10 14 12 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 1 6 7 8 7 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 253 277 270 230 295 229 266 228 283 266 279 268 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 140 144 145 148 150 155 161 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 132 135 141 144 148 152 158 164 165 161 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 67 70 68 67 62 61 58 52 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 42 37 52 51 49 45 36 40 43 37 36 200 MB DIV 93 57 36 41 45 14 15 -10 13 18 25 -2 20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 0 -7 -4 -8 -6 -6 -2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1675 1680 1680 1629 1578 1425 1276 1102 942 793 748 603 443 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.7 38.3 38.9 39.5 41.3 43.2 45.6 48.0 50.8 53.3 55.8 57.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 22 22 30 32 45 54 63 80 89 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 17. 22. 25. 25. 27. 29. 29. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/19/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)