* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 46 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 46 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 35 36 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 7 9 11 9 16 5 14 11 20 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 4 4 7 11 6 1 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 234 260 239 235 250 238 242 235 249 258 269 271 271 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 140 142 144 146 147 150 158 161 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 135 135 138 143 146 148 153 160 163 163 161 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 70 71 68 67 61 58 54 54 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 10 10 11 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 34 42 43 42 50 43 45 45 48 48 41 200 MB DIV 68 33 28 22 30 26 10 30 21 23 15 8 31 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -8 0 0 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 1651 1657 1659 1594 1530 1383 1222 1055 899 789 709 500 401 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 37.8 38.4 39.2 39.9 41.9 44.2 46.8 49.6 52.3 54.7 57.1 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 11 12 13 14 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 21 25 31 31 46 58 72 83 92 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/19/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)