* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 09/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 33 34 36 39 41 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 33 34 36 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 22 21 22 18 23 23 27 28 34 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 -4 -4 0 0 -2 0 2 0 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 278 282 285 276 279 288 274 289 277 287 275 286 292 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 132 134 138 143 150 153 159 160 158 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 122 124 127 132 139 147 152 158 159 153 153 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 13 14 14 700-500 MB RH 44 42 43 41 45 43 48 49 51 53 52 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 41 44 47 29 30 22 5 -5 -23 -29 -35 200 MB DIV -43 -29 -39 -23 -7 -15 -20 -6 -14 1 -8 0 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -1 -1 1 -2 -1 2 0 3 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1456 1404 1351 1307 1269 1112 921 755 559 239 22 17 -23 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 47.9 48.7 49.6 50.5 52.6 55.0 57.7 60.6 63.7 66.8 69.7 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 35 41 48 62 66 79 71 82 93 79 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 14. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 09/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 09/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 09/19/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)