* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 09/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 29 29 29 32 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 29 29 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 24 25 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 25 23 22 21 23 24 32 32 36 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -5 0 1 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 283 284 279 281 291 282 286 280 282 278 288 288 307 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 138 140 141 145 148 150 150 153 154 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 128 130 133 136 140 145 146 146 147 145 148 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 14 13 700-500 MB RH 41 41 39 42 42 41 49 49 54 52 58 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 40 42 40 28 34 9 1 -20 -27 -39 -45 200 MB DIV -32 -40 -42 -2 -14 -19 -5 -21 -2 -15 -6 -16 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 1460 1410 1364 1303 1211 1021 858 672 365 67 33 -60 -13 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.1 49.9 50.9 51.9 54.2 56.7 59.4 62.3 65.1 68.0 70.4 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 34 39 44 50 57 65 67 63 70 72 71 96 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 820 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 4. 4. 7. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 09/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 09/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 09/19/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)