* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 43 41 40 40 39 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 43 41 40 40 39 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 33 33 32 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 4 7 8 14 10 21 19 23 20 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 5 1 4 9 8 -1 2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 221 232 243 260 216 247 233 235 259 261 265 268 272 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 137 137 139 143 143 144 150 149 155 163 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 132 134 137 143 145 147 153 151 159 169 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 68 69 72 74 70 69 66 58 52 50 49 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 13 14 15 13 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 41 46 47 48 56 44 48 42 39 43 33 39 200 MB DIV 42 17 25 22 38 26 30 15 12 15 10 19 35 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -5 -2 -3 -3 2 0 -3 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1613 1568 1522 1453 1388 1230 1095 961 883 731 489 411 326 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 12 13 15 15 15 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 25 30 31 34 42 58 68 77 89 92 100 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 18. 16. 15. 15. 14. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/19/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)