* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 57 66 73 76 86 87 91 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 57 66 73 76 86 87 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 53 59 65 71 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 6 4 6 10 8 10 12 9 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 0 -4 -5 -6 -7 -5 -6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 89 92 96 90 107 99 87 108 86 82 58 38 55 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 157 157 155 155 154 151 149 146 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 79 80 80 77 76 73 74 74 74 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 13 14 21 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 28 33 25 21 17 11 4 -6 18 21 34 200 MB DIV 50 57 89 96 97 105 75 72 89 79 111 76 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 1 LAND (KM) 277 294 305 271 245 233 240 289 380 475 564 622 660 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 13.2 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.5 95.0 95.5 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.3 100.9 102.6 104.2 105.8 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 30 34 35 30 9 10 23 6 11 6 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 18. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 32. 41. 48. 51. 61. 62. 66. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##