* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 53 61 70 78 80 81 84 90 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 53 61 70 78 80 81 84 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 50 56 62 66 68 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 8 10 7 9 3 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -5 -4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 87 75 79 91 98 105 99 74 107 236 241 77 58 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 157 156 156 154 152 149 147 144 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 5 8 6 8 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 79 82 80 78 76 75 73 77 76 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 15 17 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 32 31 31 25 20 13 8 12 31 39 51 200 MB DIV 40 64 79 99 119 114 96 77 88 85 66 80 89 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 282 278 239 211 195 202 221 287 347 422 481 531 546 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.2 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.7 98.9 100.4 102.0 103.7 105.5 106.9 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 34 23 11 13 35 14 15 11 10 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 28. 36. 45. 53. 55. 56. 59. 65. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 6.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##