* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 44 51 60 68 74 76 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 44 51 60 68 74 76 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 51 57 62 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 5 9 10 12 6 3 4 4 14 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -1 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 69 81 87 102 103 116 101 100 43 83 153 113 117 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 156 156 156 154 153 151 148 146 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -50.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 7 6 7 7 9 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 80 80 75 74 71 71 70 67 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 14 16 19 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 28 27 26 25 14 10 11 21 32 45 45 200 MB DIV 58 75 97 119 114 112 88 97 111 105 71 95 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -7 -4 -3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 287 244 211 200 193 182 221 263 305 340 398 428 436 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.2 98.4 99.6 101.0 102.4 104.1 105.7 107.0 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 23 11 10 36 37 24 19 22 9 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 26. 35. 44. 49. 51. 53. 55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##