* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 44 45 47 47 46 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 44 45 47 47 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 31 32 34 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 16 16 17 12 19 16 14 16 17 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 -3 -1 4 1 -1 0 1 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 192 206 213 230 244 219 232 229 256 261 278 254 260 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 139 141 145 145 150 157 156 160 161 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 137 141 144 148 147 153 163 162 165 160 154 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 71 70 68 62 59 55 56 51 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 54 58 57 52 53 64 67 64 53 49 39 200 MB DIV 30 24 43 39 41 63 41 48 26 43 42 48 55 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 -2 -9 -10 -1 0 2 6 12 7 6 LAND (KM) 1623 1625 1556 1443 1337 1129 955 827 745 532 354 455 273 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 13 14 14 13 14 15 16 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 30 33 43 58 60 80 90 107 85 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/20/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)