* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 60 70 79 83 85 91 94 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 50 60 70 79 83 85 91 94 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 50 55 60 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 10 10 12 12 11 12 5 6 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -6 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 97 77 97 98 97 104 80 63 74 3 35 115 315 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 155 155 153 150 148 146 144 143 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 5 8 6 8 6 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 81 79 79 79 77 75 72 69 67 70 68 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 14 18 21 22 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 23 27 23 16 5 4 0 21 25 30 47 200 MB DIV 70 92 102 94 96 103 84 103 66 78 61 -7 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -3 -3 0 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 256 234 220 224 228 256 319 376 473 532 575 605 607 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.5 96.9 97.4 97.9 99.0 100.2 101.5 103.0 104.5 106.0 107.4 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 14 13 9 9 18 12 11 9 7 13 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 20. 23. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 35. 45. 54. 58. 60. 66. 69. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##