* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 47 50 49 49 46 46 42 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 47 50 49 49 46 46 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 41 43 44 45 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 16 12 19 13 15 17 25 15 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 0 3 0 0 2 2 1 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 221 211 236 236 221 229 202 248 246 260 279 248 264 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 139 141 143 144 150 149 153 158 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 135 139 140 143 145 146 154 150 152 157 157 152 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 67 68 64 62 56 52 52 56 53 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 17 17 15 13 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 57 57 51 52 64 72 69 56 49 37 44 200 MB DIV 40 41 42 37 76 69 34 23 37 48 51 43 63 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 4 7 5 7 9 12 9 13 LAND (KM) 1666 1576 1487 1384 1291 1114 952 880 728 532 460 408 139 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 14 15 14 15 14 13 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 23 27 27 35 53 64 68 79 83 79 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 19. 19. 16. 16. 12. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)