* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 09/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 44 46 50 53 53 52 50 49 45 44 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 44 46 50 53 53 52 50 49 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 51 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 13 16 16 15 13 18 16 17 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 3 -2 3 3 0 6 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 232 251 232 216 213 222 215 242 244 267 239 268 289 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 141 141 144 148 150 148 153 153 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 140 142 142 145 151 151 148 152 149 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 66 65 65 62 54 51 52 52 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 53 50 45 47 58 70 75 67 52 46 28 37 200 MB DIV 49 49 28 53 84 68 71 35 42 41 44 32 12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -7 3 2 8 9 7 7 7 2 LAND (KM) 1550 1458 1375 1280 1195 1001 882 857 661 558 551 296 53 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 27 24 28 48 57 62 67 80 44 67 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 18. 17. 15. 14. 10. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 09/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982011 INVEST 09/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 09/21/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)