* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962011 09/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 64 70 74 79 82 85 92 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 51 64 70 74 79 82 85 92 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 48 54 61 65 69 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 11 9 5 7 7 3 3 6 7 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -5 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 1 -5 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 72 70 68 83 65 44 12 351 138 297 250 304 114 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 153 154 156 157 156 155 154 152 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -52.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 5 9 8 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 76 75 71 74 70 73 75 74 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 15 14 14 18 21 22 27 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 2 0 -3 -8 3 22 28 43 52 68 200 MB DIV 111 88 99 94 109 112 131 77 83 49 80 40 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -1 5 -1 5 LAND (KM) 285 273 266 252 240 215 208 213 222 223 295 353 435 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 4 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 16 12 12 9 42 36 38 36 30 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 7. 7. 12. 17. 19. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 39. 45. 49. 54. 57. 60. 67. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962011 INVEST 09/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962011 INVEST 09/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##