* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 47 49 48 47 43 40 37 36 34 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 47 49 48 47 43 40 37 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 47 48 48 48 47 46 44 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 19 23 15 20 16 25 20 25 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 2 1 0 3 2 4 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 249 256 224 212 218 206 237 235 248 251 243 244 265 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 139 139 144 148 145 146 149 147 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 140 140 140 145 148 144 143 145 141 138 135 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 62 61 56 57 54 50 47 48 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 54 50 44 44 44 56 72 61 51 36 22 16 5 200 MB DIV 49 22 42 56 74 62 43 40 30 41 35 36 10 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -4 0 8 4 8 6 2 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 1455 1364 1284 1206 1128 978 923 823 719 713 459 256 176 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.2 42.5 43.8 45.2 46.5 49.4 52.1 54.6 56.9 59.1 61.4 63.3 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 23 26 34 52 64 61 65 68 50 58 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 8. 7. 3. 0. -3. -4. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)