* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 46 45 46 44 43 42 42 40 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 46 45 46 44 43 42 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 44 45 45 45 44 44 43 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 10 18 20 13 23 19 19 21 19 24 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 2 3 -1 0 0 1 3 5 -1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 256 213 208 219 219 222 250 245 254 246 250 257 284 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 139 145 145 145 149 148 144 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 137 137 139 146 144 142 145 143 137 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 60 60 54 53 49 51 50 52 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 18 16 15 13 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 49 49 54 71 69 59 49 37 23 27 17 200 MB DIV 24 37 60 75 68 55 24 27 53 51 34 11 27 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 0 8 2 9 10 7 2 5 2 9 LAND (KM) 1371 1286 1205 1126 1060 972 891 736 692 544 300 184 233 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.4 16.5 17.6 18.8 19.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.2 45.5 46.8 48.1 50.9 53.7 56.1 58.4 60.6 62.9 64.9 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 26 35 42 60 58 61 71 67 53 55 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)