* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 09/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 34 36 38 42 47 51 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 29 32 29 34 36 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 27 28 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 27 27 29 22 26 19 20 15 15 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 -3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 285 290 286 290 301 298 311 312 317 306 288 259 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 149 151 153 156 160 164 167 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 143 144 142 142 144 146 148 149 149 148 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 13 11 13 12 13 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 54 57 57 60 62 58 56 54 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 0 -3 -3 -27 -38 -44 -53 -27 -24 -13 -24 200 MB DIV -5 15 18 1 18 2 0 5 -2 9 0 1 7 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -6 -7 -5 3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -6 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 541 402 264 122 24 61 -6 10 43 -9 0 -2 -30 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.9 63.2 64.6 65.9 68.4 70.5 72.3 73.8 75.0 76.0 76.6 76.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 67 67 59 57 25 43 0 0 88 93 95 104 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 17. 22. 26. 29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 09/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992011 INVEST 09/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 09/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)