* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092011 09/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 54 61 69 74 80 83 83 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 54 61 69 74 80 83 83 86 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 54 61 67 73 77 81 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 7 7 12 6 5 2 4 2 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 0 1 -4 0 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 49 46 50 74 88 103 118 121 75 208 358 156 193 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 156 157 155 154 153 152 153 151 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.2 -52.9 -51.8 -52.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 5 7 6 9 8 12 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 74 73 72 71 70 69 58 57 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 11 15 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 11 9 19 47 47 64 88 200 MB DIV 80 35 20 49 57 122 69 67 39 50 21 24 17 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -8 -1 0 LAND (KM) 248 235 222 207 201 207 223 239 258 294 373 500 502 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.4 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.1 97.6 98.3 98.9 100.2 101.7 103.3 104.9 106.6 108.2 110.0 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 17 38 34 38 37 33 28 10 12 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 24. 31. 39. 44. 50. 53. 53. 56. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 NINE 09/21/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 NINE 09/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##