* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 55 53 52 51 51 49 48 47 47 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 55 53 52 51 51 49 48 47 47 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 56 57 57 56 54 53 53 53 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 16 14 22 13 21 17 21 13 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 1 3 1 2 4 2 0 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 236 223 216 219 208 226 250 243 237 247 216 249 313 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 139 142 145 143 145 146 144 142 142 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 137 138 141 143 140 141 140 137 133 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 58 58 52 53 54 52 49 52 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 20 18 19 17 16 14 13 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 47 49 49 57 62 62 55 50 39 15 8 6 -6 200 MB DIV 53 56 58 61 72 44 35 37 52 29 48 22 34 700-850 TADV -10 -7 6 4 10 8 12 11 8 4 10 9 5 LAND (KM) 1323 1230 1138 1080 1034 1017 887 789 742 529 342 285 366 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.7 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 45.5 46.9 48.2 49.5 51.8 54.3 56.5 58.7 60.7 62.8 64.6 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 33 40 48 64 60 63 64 62 56 63 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)