* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 51 56 60 67 69 75 76 83 84 86 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 51 56 60 67 69 75 76 83 84 86 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 54 58 65 69 73 76 80 82 84 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 6 7 7 1 5 6 5 9 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 1 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 68 85 121 122 148 5 135 154 227 254 216 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 158 159 158 156 154 154 154 154 151 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 9 11 10 10 11 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 68 71 73 68 59 56 52 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 6 8 6 8 6 9 11 16 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 6 11 16 28 43 40 66 89 200 MB DIV 45 33 64 75 92 84 38 38 33 31 41 10 16 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -6 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 201 183 166 145 140 145 180 194 235 294 369 435 461 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.0 97.5 98.2 98.9 100.4 102.3 104.1 105.7 107.2 108.6 110.4 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 14 32 45 36 40 36 35 26 25 12 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -1. -2. 2. 3. 11. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 16. 21. 27. 29. 35. 36. 43. 44. 46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/21/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##