* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 57 61 67 73 76 79 81 82 82 80 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 57 61 67 73 76 79 81 82 82 80 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 61 65 72 77 80 82 83 83 83 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 4 7 3 8 5 8 5 6 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 4 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 24 37 66 93 78 235 121 172 170 212 169 221 162 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 158 158 155 155 154 154 151 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 8 6 9 7 12 9 11 9 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 68 72 70 68 62 56 53 50 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 6 8 8 10 13 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -6 -8 -11 -8 11 14 13 35 38 49 56 59 200 MB DIV 37 51 63 77 83 66 72 37 49 28 45 6 22 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 1 -2 -5 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 176 166 155 147 149 153 172 222 276 391 456 471 537 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.5 98.1 99.0 99.8 101.5 103.2 105.1 107.0 108.7 110.3 111.8 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 25 45 37 38 40 33 29 17 16 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 16. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##