* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/22/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 70 73 81 85 90 89 89 88 88 87 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 70 73 81 85 90 89 89 88 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 71 76 83 90 94 95 93 90 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 8 8 2 6 3 9 8 11 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 0 -5 -6 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 50 67 51 82 92 85 125 207 243 249 223 252 220 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 159 159 156 155 154 154 152 148 144 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 8 10 10 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 71 71 69 61 56 49 47 43 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 6 5 5 6 8 9 11 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -16 -13 -2 3 14 27 34 29 55 53 82 200 MB DIV 43 37 50 62 62 80 53 30 32 25 28 24 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 158 147 150 159 169 211 203 246 339 478 526 567 598 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.5 18.4 18.7 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.3 98.9 99.8 100.7 102.8 104.6 106.4 108.1 109.8 111.6 113.1 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 35 44 37 38 38 34 34 22 12 29 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 18. 26. 30. 35. 34. 34. 33. 33. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##