* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 53 51 49 48 46 46 45 42 41 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 53 51 49 48 46 46 45 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 56 55 53 51 50 49 48 48 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 25 21 17 18 18 26 20 22 22 28 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 -4 0 1 3 6 -2 -1 0 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 220 207 225 232 237 234 245 233 237 225 224 213 258 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 142 143 143 142 145 144 141 139 141 139 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 141 141 140 137 139 136 131 128 129 125 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 54 56 52 51 47 44 43 48 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 20 18 16 14 15 13 13 15 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 65 62 62 57 54 32 11 7 -6 -16 -37 200 MB DIV 59 80 68 69 49 41 61 8 18 19 21 -6 30 700-850 TADV 12 20 20 15 12 12 15 4 1 0 3 2 5 LAND (KM) 1103 1066 1036 1032 1032 901 882 760 604 498 486 591 766 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 16.0 17.5 18.8 19.9 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.8 50.1 51.3 52.5 54.6 56.6 58.5 60.2 61.9 63.5 64.8 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 44 53 62 65 64 61 59 54 43 52 42 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -13. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)