* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 49 46 43 40 41 40 41 40 42 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 49 46 43 40 41 40 41 40 42 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 52 51 49 46 44 42 42 43 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 20 22 19 24 22 22 21 21 23 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -4 0 0 1 7 -3 2 0 -4 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 228 227 229 243 239 236 244 232 230 233 199 213 202 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 143 143 142 145 142 139 137 138 137 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 142 142 139 137 139 133 128 122 123 125 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 57 56 51 52 42 41 47 48 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 17 18 16 15 12 14 14 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 60 61 55 47 40 13 2 -8 -14 -26 -23 200 MB DIV 73 55 81 63 79 75 16 20 30 0 46 8 44 700-850 TADV 20 23 19 20 18 12 13 0 8 -2 6 4 5 LAND (KM) 1080 1052 1028 1062 1013 921 876 679 587 568 559 673 873 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.8 18.1 19.7 21.2 22.3 22.8 24.4 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.6 50.8 52.0 53.1 55.1 57.4 59.4 61.0 62.3 63.2 64.5 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 6 7 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 41 48 56 68 66 63 59 57 40 41 47 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -14. -15. -14. -15. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/22/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)