* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/22/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 100 106 110 111 110 109 106 105 102 102 98 96 V (KT) LAND 90 100 106 110 111 110 109 106 105 102 102 98 96 V (KT) LGE mod 90 102 110 113 114 112 108 104 101 98 93 89 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 6 8 6 1 4 3 5 7 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 15 68 104 119 135 146 212 324 289 254 240 214 255 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 157 154 153 153 153 149 144 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 8 11 10 11 11 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 66 64 58 57 51 49 43 46 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 5 6 6 7 7 10 11 14 16 19 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -15 2 3 5 14 29 41 30 54 49 71 80 200 MB DIV 31 50 60 60 69 77 26 28 28 29 0 33 41 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 1 0 0 1 -5 -3 -2 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 122 126 131 145 155 200 263 345 437 450 450 470 472 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.4 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.8 104.7 106.4 107.8 109.3 110.7 112.0 112.7 113.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 38 39 41 34 33 14 11 20 23 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 15. 14. 11. 8. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 10. 11. 16. 18. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 16. 20. 21. 20. 19. 16. 15. 12. 12. 8. 6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 52% is 12.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 52% is 20.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/22/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##