* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 37 35 31 31 29 31 31 33 36 39 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 37 35 31 31 29 31 31 33 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 36 35 32 31 29 28 29 30 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 23 17 21 21 21 28 19 24 25 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 1 2 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 225 232 241 248 239 248 228 233 245 227 233 219 207 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 143 144 142 143 143 140 138 137 136 134 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 141 142 139 138 136 130 125 121 119 118 113 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 59 53 53 47 43 43 44 44 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 16 17 14 14 12 13 13 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 54 51 47 31 19 4 -2 -17 -21 -22 -16 200 MB DIV 45 57 59 80 73 33 37 22 4 23 10 31 36 700-850 TADV 17 17 23 23 14 12 4 6 -3 3 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1033 1028 1036 1033 967 903 824 661 586 582 613 689 816 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.9 20.4 21.8 22.8 23.5 24.5 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.4 51.5 52.7 53.9 56.1 57.9 59.8 61.5 62.8 63.5 64.3 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 14 13 12 12 11 9 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 53 62 65 65 60 57 52 39 43 43 29 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -14. -14. -16. -14. -14. -12. -9. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)