* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/23/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 123 131 134 134 128 122 118 113 108 105 100 98 V (KT) LAND 110 123 131 134 134 128 122 118 113 108 105 100 98 V (KT) LGE mod 110 123 128 127 125 117 110 105 100 96 92 89 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 13 6 5 2 8 7 7 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -5 -9 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 113 135 158 142 157 116 288 156 181 157 172 181 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 156 155 153 152 153 150 147 142 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -53.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 8 12 10 12 10 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 64 62 56 52 50 46 43 42 43 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 8 8 9 10 13 16 19 20 22 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -21 0 2 2 7 16 43 41 52 62 68 70 74 200 MB DIV 37 48 49 70 88 44 67 16 32 7 20 6 32 700-850 TADV -4 0 -1 0 0 2 0 -4 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 115 127 149 161 178 255 321 423 511 481 491 509 545 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.3 102.1 103.0 103.8 105.5 107.1 108.7 110.2 111.5 112.6 113.3 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 40 40 38 33 20 10 16 27 15 19 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 12. 17. 19. 18. 12. 6. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 20. 23. 23. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 21. 24. 24. 18. 12. 8. 3. -2. -5. -10. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/23/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 45.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 12.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/23/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##