* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/23/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 30 27 25 24 24 24 26 29 34 36 V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 30 27 25 24 24 24 26 29 34 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 29 27 25 23 21 21 21 21 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 20 26 23 24 25 25 25 23 24 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 2 -1 2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 226 233 229 237 233 243 244 229 242 229 223 222 271 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 143 142 142 143 141 139 138 137 136 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 141 138 137 135 132 127 124 122 121 122 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 54 54 56 49 46 45 45 49 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 16 14 14 13 12 12 13 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 52 47 38 23 6 -2 -13 -19 -21 -11 -9 200 MB DIV 51 50 81 71 85 44 28 57 7 32 14 21 40 700-850 TADV 16 19 16 17 11 11 1 4 1 0 2 3 5 LAND (KM) 1033 1058 1048 995 959 948 778 640 549 540 578 660 817 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.9 18.2 19.5 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 24.2 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.7 56.6 58.4 60.1 61.6 62.6 63.2 64.2 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 52 63 66 65 64 56 57 49 41 44 46 33 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -14. -11. -6. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)