* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 29 27 27 26 26 25 26 25 28 28 V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 29 27 27 26 26 25 26 25 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 27 26 24 23 22 21 21 21 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 24 25 18 24 25 25 26 28 30 37 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -1 3 0 -4 1 -5 -1 1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 225 234 242 241 232 238 240 256 246 276 280 274 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 143 145 144 142 140 140 142 143 139 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 139 140 140 137 133 128 126 128 128 122 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 53 53 51 48 47 50 50 49 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 16 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 54 40 41 25 5 3 -16 -20 -36 -21 -29 200 MB DIV 53 81 68 64 80 38 34 30 11 21 16 24 27 700-850 TADV 18 16 13 14 11 4 3 -1 2 -1 5 2 5 LAND (KM) 1002 975 906 867 851 770 583 470 413 437 546 667 757 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.3 19.5 20.4 21.1 22.1 23.4 24.7 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.2 54.3 55.4 56.5 58.4 60.3 61.8 63.1 64.3 65.5 66.3 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 65 62 62 62 63 63 55 47 52 55 48 39 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -10. -7. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)