* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 09/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 40 52 62 66 70 72 74 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 30 40 52 62 66 70 72 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 31 39 51 63 72 74 72 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 8 4 4 2 3 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 5 0 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 29 56 67 67 78 62 102 245 260 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 136 134 134 135 140 141 139 136 132 132 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 140 138 137 137 141 141 137 132 126 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 71 70 69 67 67 69 72 71 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 29 30 32 41 36 26 5 -1 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 12 -7 -6 -27 5 28 10 22 33 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 541 679 829 980 1133 1414 1657 1632 1603 1642 1647 1600 1562 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.6 24.1 25.6 27.0 29.7 32.1 34.2 36.1 37.7 38.8 39.8 40.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 17 18 11 18 22 21 17 18 17 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 20. 32. 42. 46. 50. 52. 54. 57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 09/23/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 09/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED